But the broadest critique of Trump on Monday was that he gave an incoherent speech with little in the way of clear message. “He decided he needed to get female voters to stop hating him, so he included the kids thing. He needs blue-collar workers so he did the anti-trade and immigration stuff. And he wants to agree with Congressional Republicans so he did the Ryan tax cuts,” said Holtz-Eakin. “In the end he just winds up in no-man’s land with no clear idea what the plan really is.” Also On POLITICO Hillary Clinton’s surge in the polls over the past week has widened her path to victory in November and put Donald Trump in a deeper hole than recent losers Mitt Romney, John McCain or John Kerry faced at this phase of the campaign. Trump’s disastrous week — in which a series of controversial comments and inaccurate statements helped send the GOP presidential nominee spiraling downward in polls taken after the two national party conventions — has put him significantly behind his Democratic opponent. He now trails by about 7 points in the national averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster, and has been forced to play defense in a number of reliably Republican states. But for all the talk of Trump’s collapse, Clinton’s post-convention bounce returns the race roughly where it was prior to July — a month that began with FBI Director James Comey criticizing her “extremely careless” use of a private email server while serving as secretary of state, even as Comey said the government shouldn’t charge Clinton criminally. Clinton has equaled her previous high-water mark in the RealClearPolitics average (6.8 points on June 28) and the HuffPost Pollster model (7.1 points on June 20). And that widening chasm between the candidates in national polls is playing out on the Electoral College map as well. As Clinton has pulled away from Trump overall, she’s moved traditional battleground states into her column. Clinton posted significant leads this week in Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania — which would clinch the election for the Democrat, even if she lost the other seven states POLITICO has identified as battleground states (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin). But Clinton has also put longtime Republican states onto the map. Top Democrats gawked at polls this week showing her with slight advantages in Arizona and Georgia, even though neither state has voted Democratic since Bill Clinton was president. There are already signs Trump is poised to respond. Though he has yet to air any television ads in the general election, the real-estate tycoon’s campaign this week requested rates in 17 different states — a roster that includes the traditional swing states, but also reliably red states like Arizona, Georgia, Indiana and Missouri. At the same time, the Trump campaign is also inquiring about ads in historically Democratic territory — Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin — counting on the candidate’s appeal with working-class white voters to overcome the traditional blue tint of these four states, none of which has gone Republican since the 1980s. Trump’s path to the presidency is both narrow — losing more than one state among the troika of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania would make Trump’s path a tightrope walk — and wider, given the candidate’s trips to traditionally Democratic territory, like his visit to deep-blue Portland, Maine, this week. Still, both national and state polls show Trump has emerged in the immediate post-convention period as a decided underdog. Prediction models that take into account state polling show Clinton shattering her past ceiling. FiveThirtyEight’s “polls-only” forecast has Clinton over 80 percent in win odds for the first time since launching two months ago. Same for The New York Times’ Upshot model. The state polls on which those models are built were unanimous this week in identifying decisive Clinton advantages in the most critical battlegrounds. In Florida, Suffolk University surveyed 500 likely voters from Monday through Wednesday, finding Clinton with a six-point lead, 48 percent to 42 percent. Clinton blew open a 15-point lead in New Hampshire over Trump in a WBUR-FM/MassINC survey of 609 likely voters, in a state whose primary she lost by 22 points to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. Michigan, another state Clinton lost to Sanders, has also moved more solidly in her column. Clinton leads Trump 41 percent to 32 percent in the latest Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll; and in a separate EPIC-MRA survey, Clinton holds a 10-point lead of 46 percent to 36 percent. Trump was already taking a hit in Pennsylvania even before he declared to a Northern Virginia audience that its capital of Harrisburg “looked like a war zone” as he flew out of town. A Franklin & Marshall survey, conducted by telephone and online, showed Clinton with an 11-point advantage of 49 percent to 38 percent, a week after Suffolk University’s poll showed a solid 50 percent backing Clinton to 41 percent for Trump. But Clinton’s advantage extends beyond the known universe of battleground states. She’s jumped out to a small advantage in Georgia, posting a 4-point lead of 44 percent to 40 percent in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll out Friday, drawing significant majorities of women and the population of the immediate Atlanta metropolitan area. And a one-day automated-phone poll in Arizona this week conducted by the Phoenix-based firm OH Predictive Insights found Clinton with a 3-point lead, 45 percent to 42 percent. (The poll only surveyed voters on landlines – despite the fact that two-thirds of Arizona adults live in households either without a landline phone or where most calls are made on mobile phones.) The Clinton campaign doesn’t need Arizona to win, and it isn’t yet advertising there — though POLITICO reported earlier this week that the pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA is considering expanding its efforts in the state. But not only was Arizona one of the states where the Trump campaign requested ad rates, it’s one of the five states where Trump has expressed interest in hitting the airwaves prior to the final two months of the campaign. The other four are more traditional swing states: Colorado, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Only Pennsylvania has seen new, post-convention polling. Both the Clinton campaign and Priorities have suspended advertising in Colorado, where the Democrat had a big lead going into the conventions. Clinton and Priorities remain on the air in eight states: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. But both are planning to come down, at least temporarily, in Virginia later this month. Pre-convention polls showed Clinton building a consistent, single-digit lead there, too. Then there’s a long list of Democratic-leaning states about which the Trump camp is inquiring, but Clinton and her allies aren’t yet spending to defend: Maine, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Trump, in Maine on Thursday, told the Portland Press Herald he isn’t just planning on swiping one electoral vote from Maine’s 2nd Congressional District — he thinks he can win statewide and capture all four electoral votes. In addition to “some polling we’ve done internally,” Trump cited conversations with supporters on the ground as evidence. “You know we see something that’s very interesting, we have a lot of support, we have a great Republican group up here, as you know and we have a lot of support,” Trump said. “You saw the young people walking out and those are people knocking on doors. And they were just telling me they think we are going to win the whole state, not just the one [electoral] vote.” By Nirvi Shah German foreign minister: Donald Trump is a ‘hate preacher’ By Vince Chadwick And while Trump’s robust attacks on free trade may resonate with blue-collar workers in the industrial Midwest who are crucial to his chances, they are vehemently opposed by most of corporate America and Wall Street.After initially pledging to ignore big donors and fund his own campaign, Trump has since made a big push for deep-pocketed backers to help keep up with Clinton’s fundraising machine. His recently rolled-out economic team is loaded with Wall Street players. The protectionist elements of his approach, which harken back to the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the Great Depression era, will make donor outreach much harder.“He’s not really a Republican and this is mostly an economic policy that the Clinton campaign could have put together,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin of the conservative American Action Forum. “This was a political creation not a policy creation and so in the end you have this weird stew of policies that is supposed to create a unique 21st century economy that would instead deliver us back to the economy of 1964.”And while the trade aspects of the speech might appeal to frustrated voters unhappy with slow wage gains, it also included a pledge to halt new regulation, including on Wall Street, an approach that could also give Clinton an opening to critique Trump as doing the bidding of the banking industry.“Upon taking office, I will issue a temporary moratorium on new agency regulations,” Trump said in a line that lobbyists will love but that Democrats immediately seized on to launch new attacks.“Donald Trump fashions himself a populist, but his economic plan just recycles the failed policies of deregulation and massive tax cuts for the rich and corporations,” Larry Mishel of the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, said in a statement reacting to the speech. NEW YORK — Economists and Wall Street executives portrayed Donald Trump’s economic platform as a kind of Frankenstein’s monster, stitching together old ideas from the left and right.The plan, which many said defies ideological classification, includes a heavy dose of trickle-down tax cuts mixed with old-fashioned protectionism, reform-conservative social policy and a deregulation plan that should make Wall Street rejoice.The question is whether this very unusual mixture of policies rolled out in Detroit on Monday will prove captivating enough to any of Trump’s constituencies to stall his recent slide in the polls and recapture the momentum that drove him against all odds to the Republican nomination. With his proposed ban on new regulations, Trump risks reversing gains he has made with swing voters potentially worried about Clinton’s long-standing ties to Wall Street.Critics of the speech also suggested Trump may not have helped himself by relying on outdated statistics and attacking the unemployment rate as a fake. Trump cited the low labor-force participation rate, which has been rising lately and reflects long-term demographic changes, as well as a 58 percent unemployment rate among African-American youth. Many of those included in this statistic are in school rather than working. The unemployment rate among younger African-Americans who want a job is far lower.Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump addresses delegates at the end of the last day of the Republican National Convention | Timothy A. Clary/AFP/Getty ImagesNonetheless, Trump insisted: “These are the real unemployment numbers – the 5 percent figure is one of the biggest hoaxes in modern politics.”The actual unemployment rate is 4.9 percent, not 5 percent. And no serious economist views it as a hoax. Broader measures of joblessness have also fallen to near-term lows, undercutting Trump’s point.A new CNN poll shows Clinton drawing even on the question of who would be better equipped to manage the economy. And Trump critics say that relying on misleading or entirely invented statistics and questioning the validity of existing numbers is not the best way to turn this trend around.“There are legitimate arguments to be made about some economic indicators not accurately reflecting the frustration many Americans have about the economy not living up to its potential,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican and partner at Hamilton Place Strategies. “But framing the unemployment rate as a ‘hoax’ actually ends up diverting the debate. It may rally a core group of already ardent supporters, but the end result is a litigation of a conspiracy theory that matters very little to voters genuinely open to being persuaded on economic issues.” But the initial reaction from economists, financial services executives and Republican analysts was less than positive as critics ripped the plan for lacking specifics while relying on broad generalizations to attack free-trade deals.“This economic plan appears to be the good, the bad and in some cases the ugly,” said Lanhee Chen, a fellow at the Hoover Institution who was a top policy aide to Mitt Romney in 2012.And at times he seemed to make the case for TPP without realizing it.On Wall Street, analysts also criticized the speech as vague and reliant on questionable statistics. “My general response is that one speech does not make an economic plan and most of what he relied on was hyperbole,” said David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. “Let him do a dozen more of these and flesh out the specifics and then you could actually begin to analyze things.”One area where Trump provided some specifics was on tax cuts for both individuals and corporations. The GOP nominee likely slashed the original cost of his $10 trillion tax plan by junking his proposed rates of 0, 10, 20 and 25 percent and replacing them with House Speaker Paul Ryan’s proposed rates of 12, 25 and 33 percent. He left intact his proposal to cut the top corporate rate from 35 percent to 15 percent.Even with the slightly higher individual rates, the tax plan will likely produce a hefty price tag with benefits tilted toward those earning the highest incomes. Trump added a proposal to allow families to deduct the cost of child-care from their taxes, an idea some liberal economists say could cost $20 billion and largely benefit wealthy families rather than low-income earners who spend more of their money on child care but pay little in federal taxes. These tax proposals leave Trump open to attacks from Hillary Clinton’s campaign that his plans are more of the same trickle-down approach that Democrats say has exacerbated economic inequality.“The child care deduction is a horrible idea,” said Chen. “If they are going to be in general election mode and try to appeal to independents and women voters, the proposal should be tailored to serve those voters and this policy isn’t. I want to be sympathetic but they wound up in the wrong place.”On trade, Trump continued to hammer away at deals from NAFTA to the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership, saying they have eroded U.S. manufacturing. He pledged to junk existing deals in favor of better ones. He did not, however, specify how his deals would be better. And he did not contend with the role automation has played in the reduction in manufacturing jobs.With his proposed ban on new regulations, Trump risks reversing gains he has made with swing voters potentially worried about Clinton’s long-standing ties to Wall Street.And at times he seemed to make the case for TPP without realizing it. “China engages in illegal export subsidies, prohibited currency manipulation, and rampant theft of intellectual property,” Trump said. “They also have no real environmental or labor protections, further undercutting American workers.”The United States has no significant trade deal with China. The Obama administration has largely pitched TPP, which would mostly reduce tariffs on U.S. exports, as setting rules of the road on intellectual property, environmental and labor standards for a dozen nations that represent nearly 40 percent of global gross domestic product. If enacted, supporters say, China will eventually have no choice but to join and adhere to these rules.
“The United States believes that a diversity of independent voices and opinions is essential to democracy, and we urge the Government of Hungary to promote an open media environment,” Price added.Hungary’s media council decided not to renew Klubrádió’s license in September 2020, claiming the station failed to inform it in due course about its music programming.Hungarian government spokesperson Zoltán Kovács rejected the idea that Klubrádió had been forced off the air, and said in a statement that the “station’s own management is to blame for its demise by flagrantly disregarding broadcasting regulations and falling afoul of the court.” He claimed criticism of the Hungarian media council was part of an “anti-Orbán agenda.”Klubrádió’s chief András Arató told AFP the station would file an appeal in Hungary’s Supreme Court and is considering legal action at the EU level. A French foreign ministry spokeswoman said the decision not to renew Klubrádió’s license was “a very worrying signal in terms of pluralism and media independence.”In a statement on Wednesday, NGO Reporters Without Borders called on the European Commission to “stop delaying its investigation into the Media Council’s independence.” The U.S. expressed “deep concern” about the “declining media pluralism in Hungary,” as the last radio station that is critical of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government is due to go off the air. A Budapest court on Tuesday upheld a Hungarian media council decision not to extend Klubrádió’s broadcasting license, which expires February 14, over claims it violated media laws on multiple occasions. “The imminent loss of the broadcasting license of one of the country’s most popular radio stations, Klubrádió, threatens the departure of yet another independent voice from Hungary’s airwaves,” U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a statement Wednesday.